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比特币、区块链和公司价值

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月24日 01:49:40
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(很)(显)(然)(,“区)(块)(链)(”再)(一)(次)(成)(为)(了)(热)(词)((注)(:2013年)(时)(热)(过)(一)(次)(,之)(后)(随)(着)(比)(特)(币)(从)(1155美)(元)(跌)(破)(200美)(元)(,跌)(幅)(高)(达)(83%而)(冷)(却)(),越)(来)(越)(多)(的)(公)(司)(将)(Blockchain(“区)(块)(链)(”)或)(XXCoin(某)(“加)(密)(货)(币)(”)之)(类)(的)(流)(行)(术)(语)(,添)(加)(到)(他)(们)(的)(公)(司)(名)(字)(中)(,使)(得)(公)(司)(股)(票)(飙)(升)(起)(来)(。
出)(人)(意)(料)(的)(包)(括)(了)(老)(牌)(公)(司)(——柯)(达)(。
之)(前)(,一)(直)(一)(蹶)(不)(振)(的)(百)(年)(老)(店)(柯)(达)(公)(司)(,也)(推)(出)(了)(它)(自)(己)(的)(柯)(达)(币)((KodakCoin),一)(种)(提)(供)(给)(摄)(影)(师)(的)(加)(密)(货)(币)(,此)(消)(息)(一)(经)(公)(布)(,柯)(达)(的)(股)(票)((KODK)瞬)(间)(直)(往)(上)(蹿)(,股)(价)(上)(涨)(至)(每)(股)(5.02美)(元)(,涨)(幅)(高)(达)(60%。可)(之)(后)(2月)(1日)(,当)(柯)(达)(宣)(布)(将)(延)(期)(推)(出)(KODAKCoin之)(后)(,股)(票)(便)(下)(跌)(15.6%。
区)(块)(链)(究)(竟)(是)(什)(么)(?
区)(块)(链)((英)(语)(:blockchain或)(block chain),是)(指)(用)(分)(布)(式)(数)(据)(库)(识)(别)(、传)(播)(和)(记)(载)(信)(息)(的)(智)(能)(化)(对)(等)(网)(络)(,也)(称)(为)(价)(值)(互)(联)(网)(。其)(最)(初)(概)(念)(是)(由)(Stuart Haber于)(1991年)(提)(出)(,1992年)(被)(W. Scott Stornetta修)(改)(加)(工)(。
在)(2008年)(,一)(位)(号)(称)(“中)(本)(聪)(”的)(人)(在)(《比)(特)(币)(白)(皮)(书)(》中)(,完)(善)(了)(“区)(块)(链)(”概)(念)(,并)(在)(2009年)(创)(立)(了)(比)(特)(币)(社)(会)(网)(络)(,开)(发)(出)(第)(一)(个)(区)(块)(,即)(“创)(世)(区)(块)(”。
自)(此)(之)(后)(,区)(块)(链)(共)(享)(价)(值)(体)(系)(首)(先)(被)(众)(多)(的)(加)(密)(货)(币)(效)(仿)(,并)(在)(工)(作)(量)(证)(明)(上)(和)(算)(法)(上)(进)(行)(了)(改)(进)(,比)(如)(采)(用)(权)(益)(证)(明)(和)(SCrypt算)(法)(。随)(后)(区)(块)(链)(生)(态)(系)(统)(在)(全)(球)(不)(断)(进)(化)(,出)(现)(了)(首)(次)(代)(币)(发)(售)(ICO,以)(及)(“轻)(所)(有)(权)(、重)(使)(用)(权)(”的)(资)(产)(代)(币)(化)(共)(享)(经)(济)(……
目)(前)(,人)(们)(正)(在)(利)(用)(这)(一)(共)(享)(价)(值)(体)(系)(,在)(各)(行)(各)(业)(开)(发)(去)(中)(心)(化)(电)(脑)(程)(序)((Decentralized applications, Dapp),在)(全)(球)(各)(地)(构)(建)(去)(中)(心)(化)(自)(主)(组)(织)(和)(去)(中)(心)(化)(自)(主)(社)(区)((Decen-tralized autonomous society, DAS)。
此)(外)(,区)(块)(链)(技)(术)(可)(用)(于)(创)(建)(一)(个)(永)(久)(的)(、公)(开)(的)(、透)(明)(的)(总)(账)(系)(统)(。用)(于)(编)(辑)(销)(售)(数)(据)(,通)(过)(认)(证)(版)(权)(注)(册)(来)(存)(储)(版)(权)(数)(据)(。比)(如)(,商)(业)(组)(织)(正)(在)(为)(各)(种)(应)(用)(开)(发)(分)(布)(式)(分)(类)(账)(的)(区)(块)(链)(软)(件)(。由)(于)(这)(些)(软)(件)(被)(中)(心)(化)(机)(构)(控)(制)(,不)(具)(有)(区)(块)(链)(去)(中)(心)(化)(的)(属)(性)(,被)(称)(为)(私)(有)(链)((private blockchains)、区)(域)(链)(、或)(者)(联)(盟)(链)(。
不)(过)(,因)(其)(应)(用)(范)(围)(与)(用)(分)(布)(式)(数)(据)(库)(处)(理)(信)(息)(的)(云)(端)(运)(算)(相)(似)(,2017年)(6月)(止)(,不)(但)(没)(有)(任)(何)(私)(有)(链)(得)(到)(认)(可)(和)(使)(用)(,而)(且)(国)(际)(银)(行)(界)(纷)(纷)(退)(出)(所)(参)(与)(的)(项)(目)(。2017年)(5月)(,加)(拿)(大)(中)(央)(银)(行)(也)(放)(弃)(了)(国)(家)(私)(有)(链)(的)(开)(发)(,主)(要)(原)(因)(是)(与)(中)(央)(银)(行)(体)(系)(格)(格)(不)(入)(。
股)(价)(泡)(沫)(
为)(什)(么)(与)(“区)(块)(链)(”沾)(边)(的)(公)(司)(股)(价)(会)(飙)(升)(?
这)(不)(禁)(令)(人)(想)(起)(20年)(前)(的)(“.COM”泡)(沫)(时)(,那)(时)(,一)(个)(公)(司)(只)(要)(带)(上)(“.COM”的)(标)(识)(,其)(股)(价)(就)(会)(飙)(升)(。但)(是)(20多)(年)(过)(去)(了)(,在)(当)(年)(上)(万)(家)(号)(称)(互)(联)(网)(的)(公)(司)(中)(,最)(后)(真)(能)(脱)(颖)(而)(出)(的)(迄)(今)(就)(只)(有)(“八)(大)(家)(”。
相)(较)(上)(次)(“.COM”泡)(沫)(的)(“成)(住)(坏)(空)(”,这)(次)(区)(块)(链)(热)(得)(更)(为)(诡)(异)(。因)(为)(迄)(今)(为)(止)(,无)(论)(是)(银)(行)(自)(有)(转)(账)(、诈)(骗)(风)(险)(控)(制)(,还)(是)(智)(能)(合)(约)(的)(执)(行)(等)(方)(面)(,区)(块)(链)(所)(带)(来)(的)(利)(都)(小)(于)(弊)(。区)(块)(链)(技)(术)(已)(经)(提)(出)(十)(多)(年)(了)(,但)(目)(前)(还)(没)(有)(出)(现)(一)(个)(区)(块)(链)(技)(术)(大)(规)(模)(的)(应)(用)(场)(景)(。
即)(区)(块)(链)(并)(没)(有)(实)(质)(性)(的)(突)(破)(。
就)(拿)(区)(块)(链)(第)(一)(个)(最)(成)(功)(的)(应)(用)(比)(特)(币)(来)(说)(。True Link CEO Kai Stinchcombe指)(出)(:比)(较)(而)(言)(,Visa每)(秒)(能)(处)(理)(六)(万)(笔)(交)(易)(,而)(比)(特)(币)(的)(历)(史)(记)(录)(则)(是)(每)(秒)(处)(理)(7笔)(交)(易)(。改)(进)(比)(特)(币)(效)(率)(的)(技)(术)(正)(在)(研)(究)(中)(,但)(这)(种)(新)(技)(术)(的)(起)(点)(,大)(约)(仅)(为)(现)(有)(交)(易)(系)(统)(性)(能)(的)(0.01%。
事)(实)(上)(,企)(业)(投)(入)(区)(块)(链)(的)(巨)(额)(资)(金)(,都)(将)(意)(味)(着)(烧)(钱)(,别)(说)(何)(时)(能)(产)(生)(利)(润)(,就)(连)(何)(时)(能)(收)(回)(投)(资)(也)(只)(有)(天)(知)(道)(。事)(实)(上)(,目)(前)(所)(谓)(投)(入)(区)(块)(链)(那)(些)(公)(司)(,90%以)(上)(和)(区)(块)(链)(没)(有)(任)(何)(关)(系)(;99%是)(以)(区)(块)(链)(为)(由)(头)(的)(融)(资)(项)(目)(,很)(可)(能)(毫)(无)(价)(值)(和)(技)(术)(含)(量)(,更)(可)(能)(是)(一)(个)(骗)(局)(。
但)(是)(,资)(本)(市)(场)(的)(泡)(沫)(是)(不)(顾)(那)(些)(道)(理)(的)(。从)(资)(本)(市)(场)(上)(来)(说)(,预)(测)(预)(期)(就)(是)(未)(来)(。
再)(回)(头)(来)(看)(比)(特)(币)(,尽)(管)(好)(多)(经)(济)(学)(家)(如)(诺)(奖)(经)(济)(学)(奖)(获)(得)(者)(保)(罗)(·克)(鲁)(格)(曼)(、罗)(伯)(特)(·席)(勒)(、美)(联)(储)(前)(主)(席)(、业)(内)(大)(老)(巴)(菲)(特)(、索)(罗)(斯)(、查)(理)(·芒)(格)(、各)(大)(金)(融)(机)(构)(老)(总)(等)(都)(明)(确)(表)(示)(,以)(比)(特)(币)(为)(代)(表)(的)(虚)(拟)(币)(的)(价)(值)(为)(0,价)(格)(完)(全)(是)(虚)(高)(,是)(被)(炒)(上)(去)(的)(。
这)(也)(和)(我)(从)(2013年)(开)(始)(反)(复)(分)(析)(比)(特)(币)(的)(基)(本)(观)(点)(几)(乎)(一)(致)(。
最)(近)(,保)(罗)(·克)(鲁)(格)(曼)(明)(确)(指)(出)(,尽)(管)(现)(代)(美)(元)(是)(一)(种)(“法)(定)(”货)(币)(,没)(有)(其)(他)(任)(何)(资)(产)((如)(黄)(金)()作)(为)(保)(障)(,但)(是)(,美)(国)(政)(府)(接)(受)(以)(美)(元)(支)(付)(的)(税)(款)(。事)(实)(上)(,是)(要)(求)(以)(美)(元)(支)(付)(税)(款)(。这)(一)(点)(最)(终)(保)(障)(了)(它)(的)(价)(值)(。美)(元)(的)(购)(买)(力)(也)(由)(美)(联)(储)((Federal Reserve)保)(持)(稳)(定)(,如)(果)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(过)(高)(,美)(联)(储)(将)(减)(少)(美)(元)(的)(供)(应)(量)(;为)(防)(止)(通)(货)(紧)(缩)(,又)(会)(增)(加)(美)(元)(的)(供)(应)(量)(。一)(张)(100美)(元)(的)(钞)(票)(价)(值)(,当)(然)(等)(同)(于)(大)(致)(稳)(定)(的)(100美)(元)(。
相)(比)(之)(下)(,比)(特)(币)(根)(本)(没)(有)(内)(在)(价)(值)(。它)(缺)(乏)(现)(实)(束)(缚)(,且)(用)(途)(又)(非)(常)(有)(限)(,二)(者)(结)(合)(起)(来)(,导)(致)(这)(种)(资)(产)(的)(价)(格)(几)(乎)(等)(同)(于)(纯)(粹)(的)(投)(机)(,因)(此)(非)(常)(不)(稳)(定)(。
世)(界)(顶)(级)(泡)(沫)(经)(济)(专)(家)(罗)(伯)(特)(·席)(勒)((Robert Shiller)表)(示)(,资)(产)(泡)(沫)(就)(像)(“自)(然)(发)(生)(的)(庞)(氏)(骗)(局)(”。随)(着)(新)(投)(资)(者)(被)(吸)(引)(进)(来)(,早)(期)(的)(投)(资)(者)(赚)(取)(了)(大)(量)(金)(钱)(,这)(些)(利)(润)(又)(吸)(引)(了)(更)(多)(的)(人)(。这)(个)(过)(程)(可)(能)(会)(持)(续)(好)(几)(年)(,直)(到)(发)(生)(什)(么)(事)(情)(--一)(次)(残)(酷)(现)(实)(的)(提)(醒)(,或)(者)(根)(本)(只)(是)(潜)(在)(的)(吸)(引)(目)(标)(被)(耗)(尽)(了)(--导)(致)(狂)(欢)(令)(人)(痛)(苦)(地)(戛)(然)(而)(止)(。
可)(也)(有)(学)(者)(搬)(出)(哈)(耶)(克)(的)(货)(币)(非)(国)(家)(化)(来)(力)(撑)(,并)(以)(虚)(拟)(币)(将)(不)(会)(再)(有)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(和)(紧)(缩)(的)(愿)(景)(来)(作)(为)(预)(期)(。
但)(事)(实)(上)(,哈)(耶)(克)(所)(主)(张)(的)(“货)(币)(非)(国)(家)(化)(”,即)(允)(许)(私)(人)(发)(行)(竞)(争)(性)(的)(货)(币)(取)(代)(政)(府)(发)(行)(垄)(断)(货)(币)(,其)(实)(只)(是)(被)(他)(那)(个)(年)(代)(所)(局)(限)(的)(空)(想)(而)(已)(。现)(在)(我)(们)(早)(已)(进)(入)(了)(信)(用)(货)(币)(的)(时)(代)(,任)(何)(私)(人)(机)(构)(的)(信)(用)(,都)(不)(可)(能)(与)(政)(府)(的)(信)(用)(竞)(争)(抗)(衡)(的)(。
而)(以)(比)(特)(币)(为)(代)(表)(的)(虚)(拟)(币)(的)(拥)(趸)(,凭)(借)(着)(哈)(耶)(克)(的)(“货)(币)(非)(国)(家)(化)(”,指)(出)(只)(要)(有)(共)(识)(,就)(能)(构)(成)(货)(币)(的)(基)(础)(,那)(是)(混)(淆)(“共)(识)(”和)(“信)(用)(”的)(概)(念)(,要)(么)(是)(缺)(乏)(信)(用)(货)(币)(最)(起)(码)(的)(常)(识)(,要)(么)(是)(刻)(意)(为)(之)(。
此)(外)(,比)(特)(币)(为)(代)(表)(的)(虚)(拟)(币)(,根)(本)(无)(法)(避)(免)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(和)(紧)(缩)(。如)(比)(特)(币)(在)(过)(去)(六)(周)(里)(几)(乎)(贬)(值)(了)(50%,如)(果)(它)(是)(一)(种)(实)(际)(货)(币)(,那)(么)(相)(当)(于)(约)(10000%的)(年)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(率)(。更)(别)(说)(,虚)(拟)(币)(可)(以)(有)(无)(限)(多)(种)((目)(前)(已)(经)(有)(近)(1800种)(,而)(且)(还)(不)(断)(地)(如)(雨)(后)(春)(笋)(般)(地)(产)(生)(),且)(自)(身)(还)(能)(不)(断)(地)(分)(叉)(,另)(外)(比)(特)(币)(还)(可)(能)(有)(“后)(门)(”。2100万)(的)(限)(额)(只)(有)(中)(本)(聪)(知)(道)(了)(,而)(迄)(今)(为)(止)(,投)(资)(者)(连)(中)(本)(聪)(是)(谁)(都)(不)(知)(道)(。
四)(百)(多)(年)(来)(,一)(个)(又)(一)(个)(金)(融)(大)(泡)(沫)(在)(破)(灭)(之)(前)(,全)(部)(被)(各)(种)(美)(丽)(的)(包)(装)(打)(点)(过)(,都)(说)(“这)(次)(不)(一)(样)(了)(”。但)(遗)(憾)(的)(是)(,每)(次)(的)(结)(局)(恰)(恰)(都)(一)(样)(——破)(灭)(。
(作)(者)(系)(加)(拿)(大)(皇)(家)(银)(行)(资)(深)(风)(险)(投)(资)(顾)(问)()返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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